arXiv:2610.12088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Finite element simulations carried out on meshes issued from real-world geometries - patient-specific anatomies, scanned industrial parts, fractured media - almost never satisfy the shape-regularity assumptions under which classical a posteriori error analysis is written. Practitioners are therefore left without a quantitative answer to a very legitimate question: how wrong is my simulation when my mesh is coarse and contains badly shaped elements? In this work, we study to which extent equilibrated flux estimators can provide such an answer. Indeed, they deliver a guaranteed and fully computable upper bound of the energy-norm discretization error, with a constant equal to one; and, crucially for the present study, its derivation uses no shape-regularity, quasi-uniformity or angle condition. The only geometric ingredient is the Poincar\'e constant on a single cell, which Payne and Weinberger showed to be at most hK /pi on any convex cell K, however distorted (hK being the cell size). Mesh quality affects the local efficiency - the sharpness of the estimator - but never its reliability, so that the failure mode under distortion is pessimism rather than false confidence.