AI & ML
Calibration and Risk-Budgeted Decisions with System One Models
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2610.19811v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM workflows and agents rely on a set of binary decisions like allow/block an input, or discard/retain a retrieved document. When human deferral is unavailable, uncertain cases must still receive an action. We study System One decision scores in this setting by defaulting to a conservative fallback when uncertain, and controlling the false omission risk within the subset of inputs assigned the utility-maximizing action. Across six datasets covering moderation, safety, and reranking, we compare general System One models with task baselines and a local open-weights fine-tuned System One model. We show that naive baselines for threshold selection exceed the target risk in roughly half of settings with defined test risk, compared with 7.8\% for Learn Then Test (LTT), which leverages finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our results show why relying on a probability-like interface is insufficient for deployment decisions and how risk-budgeted selection trades useful action against observed error.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19811PreviousSNACK: A Sequential Notation Framework for Probabilistic Graph GenerationNextText-Informed Training Data Filtering for Enhanced Virtual Flow Meter Performance
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