AI & ML
Conservative neural posterior estimation via distributionally robust training
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2605.28516v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces the standard NPE objective with a worst-case loss over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We introduce KL-based metrics for miscoverage and miscalibration, and use these to show that the DRO-NPE objective controls overfitting and reduces posterior overconfidence. Our method is tractable, parallelisable, and readily integrates with standard normalising flows. Across benchmark SBI tasks, DRO-NPE consistently improves coverage and calibration, while narrowing the gap between empirical and population NPE loss, leading to more reliable inference in low-simulation regimes.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28516PreviousA Rigorous, Tractable Measure of Model ComplexityNextDiffusion Models Observe Only Gradients: A Geometric Perspective on Score Matching Errors
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