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Decomposition of Spillover Effects Under Misspecification: Pseudo-true Estimands and a Local-Global Extension
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2602.12023v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: To measure spillovers, researchers often summarize who else was treated with a simple measure, such as the share of treated neighbors. We study what the researcher estimates when that summary is misspecified. We show that the researcher estimates the best approximation to the true policy effect among all functionals of the chosen summary, and that the usual direct and spillover estimates are exactly the components of this approximation. We then specialize this framework to a setting common in applications such as cash transfers: treatment spills over both globally, through market equilibrium, and locally, through network externalities, while the researcher models only one channel. The network estimator still recovers the network spillover, and the equilibrium estimator the equilibrium spillover, even when the other channel is ignored. We illustrate with a simulation calibrated to a large cash-transfer experiment.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.12023PreviousReinforcement Learning with Multi-Step Lookahead Information Via Adaptive BatchingNextMinimaxity and Admissibility of Bayesian Neural Networks
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