AI & ML
Efficient seismic reliability and fragility analysis of lifeline networks using subset simulation
arXiv stat.CO0 views
arXiv:2310.10232v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Various simulation-based and analytical methods have been developed to evaluate the seismic fragilities of individual structures. However, the seismic safety and resilience of a community are substantially affected by network reliability, determined not only by component fragilities but also by network topology and commodity/information flows. Seismic reliability analyses of networks often encounter significant computational challenges due to complex network topologies, interdependencies among ground motions, and low failure probabilities. This paper proposes a variance-reduction method for network fragility analysis using subset simulation to overcome these challenges. The binary network limit-state function is reformulated into more informative piecewise continuous functions. The proposed limit-state functions quantify the proximity of each sample to the network failure domain, thereby enabling the construction of specialized intermediate failure events, which can be utilized in subset simulation and other sequential Monte Carlo approaches. Moreover, by identifying an implicit relationship between intermediate failure events and seismic intensity, we propose a technique to obtain the entire network fragility curve with a single execution of specialized subset simulation. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively evaluate system-level fragility for large-scale networks.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.10232PreviousThe generalized lower triangular process priorNextRobust Bayesian methods using amortized simulation-based inference
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