arXiv:2610.13768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: What can an adversary recover from a model trained with DP-SGD? Its $(\varepsilon,\delta)$ guarantee does not answer this question directly. We derive a distortion bound that can be computed before training and applies even to an adversary who observes the parameter trajectory during training, knows every other training record and the population distribution from which the training records are drawn. The analyst may choose the representation in which error is measured, allowing the bound to target the aspects of reconstruction that are privacy-sensitive in a given application. Our information-theoretic framework separates two contributions: the information about a record revealed by training, measured through conditional mutual information, and the uncertainty already present in the data distribution, measured through source entropy. Rate-distortion theory combines them into a lower bound on the expected error of every reconstruction attack. For DP-SGD, the leakage bound depends only on the sampling rates and noise multipliers, while the source entropy is lower-bounded from a sample with finite-sample confidence. An orthogonal block construction keeps the resulting bound informative for high-dimensional images. We instantiate the framework in pixel space and in LPIPS feature space, obtaining, to our knowledge, the first lower bound on reconstruction distortion measured directly by LPIPS. On a range of image datasets the bounds establish non-trivial unavoidable expected reconstruction error within heuristically recommended privacy-budget ranges and beyond. Experiments compare the bounds with strong reconstruction attacks and identify the principal sources of the remaining slack.