arXiv:2610.31787v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: By viewing tactics in no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu (NGJJ) as discrete states, we estimate the transition probabilities of tactical progression, while simultaneously exploring the effects of weight categories on these dynamics with a hierarchical absorbing Markov chain model. We further cluster the weight categories and borrow strength using the Ewens-Pitman attraction of Dahl, Day and Tsai. Random partitions allow us to explore the underlying groupings of these weight categories in terms of their transition patterns. The hierarchical structure enables us to obtain an overall mean estimate of the transition probability matrix along with the individual estimates of the weight categories. Through simulations we find that the proposed model is more flexible than hierarchical methods with no partition or fully-pooled alternatives while sacrificing very little efficiency under model misspecification. Applying this method to NGJJ, we found a back-take is the tactic most likely to lead to achieving submission across all weight categories. In addition, we discovered the lightest (66kg) and heaviest (99kg+) weight categories vary significantly from the others in long-term tactical progression.