arXiv:2610.11967v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Localizing an event camera against a pre-built LiDAR map can be cast as dense optical-flow estimation between a rendered depth view and an event image, followed by a Perspective-n-Point (PnP) solver over the induced 3D-2D correspondences. Existing pipelines rely on geometric consensus during pose estimation, but do not explicitly model the reliability or pose informativeness, i.e., how strongly a correspondence constrains the camera pose, of individual correspondences. We show that the natural way to learn it -- using the per-correspondence error to constrain the learning of confidence -- suffers from a depth-dependent bias: small pixel errors reside predominantly at large depths and do not lead to high pose informativeness. Instead, in our method (CELL), we learn a per-correspondence confidence end-to-end through the pose, using a differentiable probabilistic PnP whose log-partition term encourages weight configurations that yield a better-constrained pose distribution. The learned confidence is used in three ways: (i) it reweights the flow supervision in a decoupled training scheme that keeps pose gradients out of the flow/edge backbone; (ii) it drives a probabilistic correspondence selection at test time; and (iii) together with the network's edge-probability it weights a final edge-matching refinement. We further design a partial-completion depth representation that adds signal without hallucinating across large gaps. On M3ED and DSEC our full system improves over the LEAR baseline on the majority of the evaluated sequences: it reduces the median translation error by up to 26.9% and the median rotation error by up to 15.8%.