arXiv:2610.31028v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Flexible robotic endoscopes provide access through tortuous anatomy, where friction, deformation, and wall interaction separate commanded insertion from useful distal progress. Operators interpret this mismatch and retreat to recover a navigable configuration. Recognizing the approach to that decision requires relating motor intent to distal response and the local visual scene. We introduce Multimodal Progress-Residual Fusion (MPRF), a causal model that anticipates operator retreat from commands, electromagnetic (EM) tracking, and endoscopic video. A nominal-progress model predicts the response expected in normal or successful navigation; a temporal predictor combines its EM residual with all three observed modalities. In a 150-episode colon-phantom collection, MPRF achieves 0.580 +/- 0.007 AUPRC across three seeds, compared with 0.511 for the strongest reduced-modality control. Complete multimodal histories provide the principal ranking advantage, while the residual adds an explicit intent-response representation with a small, uncertain increment over raw fusion. Analysis of frozen alarms relates warning timing to the behavioral label and explains the increase in event recall under a longer matching window. These results establish a basis for behavioral assistance during operator-controlled navigation.