If you're a software engineer in Latin America, you know the dream job: a US company, a Slack full of people in Austin, paid in dollars. Nearshoring. For a decade it's been the best deal in the region.

But there's one uncomfortable piece of math.

The math

Nearshoring sells engineers by the head, or by the hour. More engineers, more money.

Now add AI. With agents, what took me a week takes a day or two. So if one engineer does the work of three and the client pays per head… how many heads does the client still need?

Worse: if we bill by the hour and get three times faster, we just made three times less money for the same work. A business model that profits from slowness doesn't survive a technology that removes it.

Three scenarios

1. The cut. The easiest line in a US budget isn't the employee in the office. It's the contractor. Us. No layoff headlines, just a contract that doesn't get renewed.

2. Back to the software factory. Remember the 2000s? Fixed price, Gantt charts, a CMMI certificate in the lobby. It might come back with a new shape: "Don't rent ten engineers. Give us the spec, we deliver in eight weeks." Now the speed is our margin, not the client's discount. But selling results means owning the risk, the architecture and the deadline.

3. Nothing changes. Every time software got cheaper, we built more of it. Ask any PM if their backlog is done. They'll laugh, then schedule a meeting about it. Same headcount, way more output.

My bet

A mix, unevenly distributed. Engineers who are just "extra hands" are at risk, because hands are exactly what AI replaces. Engineers who bring judgment will be fine: the ones who understand the business, design the system and lead the agents.

Same for companies. The ones selling hours will compete on price against a machine. The ones selling results will have the best margins the region has ever seen.

What I'd do

  • Be a person, not a seat. The engineer the client would miss by name.
  • Learn the business. Agents know the stack. They don't know why billing hates the invoice flow.
  • Lead agents. That's the new seniority.
  • Keep your English sharp. Fewer seats go to whoever communicates best.

Your turn

LATAM folks: are contracts shrinking, or are clients asking for more? US folks: is AI changing how big you want your nearshore team?

Let's talk in the comments.