arXiv:2610.30053v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Passive time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) localization is well suited for tracking non-cooperative unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that do not report their positions. However, its accuracy degrades under the mixed line-of-sight (LOS) and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation that is typical of low-altitude flight. In this paper, we develop NLOS-aware Cram\'er--Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) and an empirically calibrated measurement model for TDOA-based UAV localization, and we evaluate both with measurements from five UAV flights on the Aerial Experimentation and Research Platform for Advanced Wireless (AERPAW). The analysis yields an identifiability condition that relates the number of sensors to the number of NLOS links, together with a bias-induced error floor that a wider bandwidth cannot remove. The model parameters are estimated by matching simulated and measured error distributions. Experimental results show that the error depends most strongly on the number of sensors in LOS, while a higher altitude and a wider bandwidth lower the median error. Relocating a sensor that is always in NLOS into the open flight area can lower the median horizontal bound by two orders of magnitude if the relocated sensor is in LOS. The fitted model reproduces the median errors of the 2.5 MHz and 5 MHz flights but underestimates the heaviest error tails. Finally, rejecting outlier fixes lowers the error far more than Kalman or particle filtering, because the remaining error is dominated by bias.