AI & ML
On Over-Conservatism Under Low-Probability Extreme Events: A KL-Regularized Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Planning Method
arXiv eess.SY0 views
arXiv:2610.18290v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The increasing penetration of renewable energy makes power systems more vulnerable to low-probability extreme events, elevating system planning to a critical role in ensuring reliability. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) based on the Wasserstein distance is widely used to address this challenge. However, we find that the conventional Wasserstein ambiguity set tends to excessively amplify the probabilities of low-probability extreme events, leading to over-conservative investment decisions. To mitigate this over-conservatism, this paper proposes a novel ambiguity set that modifies the Wasserstein distance with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence regularization term. By leveraging the KL divergence's sensitivity to relative probability changes, the proposed set effectively curbs the unrealistic magnification of low-probability events. A two-stage distributionally robust planning model built upon this new ambiguity set is developed to optimize the installed capacity of photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage. The complex model is then reformulated as an equivalent exponential cone program with strict theoretical proofs, making it computationally tractable. Numerical results on the PJM 5-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems reveal the over-conservatism of standard Wasserstein DRO under low-probability extreme events and validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed planning model and solution algorithm.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18290PreviousFast Analytical Method for Resource Adequacy Assessment in Renewable-Rich Power SystemsNextRunning AI Models in the Browser: Practical WebGPU/WASM Inference for Production Web Apps
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