General
Online Inference in Distributional Temporal-Difference Learning
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2608.14408v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study online statistical inference for functionals of the return distribution under a fixed policy. The return distribution is estimated by nonparametric distributional temporal-difference learning from a single Markov trajectory. For the Polyak--Ruppert averaged estimator, we prove that its root-$T$ error converges weakly to a centered Gaussian random element in Cram\'er space. We also prove that, conditionally on the observed trajectory, the root-$T$ difference between the bootstrap and original averages converges weakly to the same Gaussian limit. These results justify bootstrap inference for smooth statistical functionals, including variance, CVaR, expected shortfall, and expectiles. For nonsmooth statistical functionals, we develop a local asymptotic theory for the estimated return CDF over $T^{-1/2}$-neighborhoods of finitely many thresholds, together with its bootstrap analogue. This theory allows us to conduct inference for nonsmooth statistical functionals characterized by CDF equations, including return quantiles.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14408PreviousOnline Inference for Quantile Distributional Reinforcement LearningNextIs the Policy Gradient a Gradient?
Related posts
Adventurer returns home to Hull after 28-year walk from South America
0Hacker News New
Vending machine has terms and conditions you must accept before using [video]
0Hacker News New
Tomorrow Corporation Tech Demo [video]
0Hacker News New
Does Social Status Run in Families?
0Hacker News New
Show HN: Svoxx – A multilingual freelance marketplace with social features
0Hacker News New
433MHz TUI scanner: using a FT232H connected to a CC1101
0Hacker News New