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Positive, monotone, and convex Gaussian process regression with Laplacian eigenfunctions
arXiv stat.CO0 views
arXiv:2610.27177v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study how to condition an existing Hilbert space Gaussian process (HSGP) expansion on positivity, monotonicity, or convexity throughout an interval. The expansion has Gaussian coefficients whose variances are given by the kernel's spectral density. At fixed covariance and noise parameters, we retain this coefficient law and represent each complete interval event as a threshold on one coefficient. Integrating out that coefficient gives a strongly log-concave marginal posterior with a normal survival weight, while conditional truncated normal sampling recovers the full constrained law. The construction also covers joint restrictions within the finite expansion. For individual restrictions, we characterize the thresholds through polynomial equations and bound posterior error from conservative numerical evaluation in total variation. Under spectral regularity, the conditioned finite posteriors converge in quadratic Wasserstein distance to the corresponding conditioned underlying GP posteriors as the computational interval expands and higher frequencies are retained. This convergence controls uniform discrepancies in the response and derivatives through the constrained order. Mercury lidar and leaf light-response applications illustrate the consequences for derivative inference.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27177PreviousEfficient Bayesian Filtering and Inference for Integro-Difference Equation ModelsNextStructural equation modelling--based meta-analytic model for diagnostic test accuracy studies
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