AI & ML
Predictively Oriented Gaussian Process Posteriors
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2610.03201v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modelling and quantifying uncertainty in functional relationships. However, they require practitioners to make a number of design decisions, such as the choice of the kernel and the observation model. Suboptimal choices can produce misspecified models that do not capture the underlying data generating process. We introduce Predictively Oriented Gaussian Processes (PrO-GPs), which treat predictive uncertainty as the primary inferential target and provide a robust alternative to standard GPs. Although direct computation of a PrO posterior for nonparametric models is intractable, we derive a reduced formulation and practical sampling scheme for efficient computation. Through synthetic and real data experiments, we show that PrO-GPs produce better calibrated predictive distributions under model misspecification compared to standard GP approaches.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03201PreviousHopformer: Homogeneity-Pursuit Transformer for Time Series ForecastingNextStrong Gaussian Approximation of Constant Learning Rate SGD: Bias and Trajectory Inference
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