arXiv:2611.13790v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: End-to-end autonomous driving systems increasingly rely on generating multiple trajectory candidates and selecting one for execution. In this setting, a central challenge is no longer only candidate generation, but how to evaluate candidates according to their long-horizon consequences under uncertainty. Existing methods still mainly use deterministic point scores, heuristic subscores, or single-outcome evaluations, which makes it difficult to capture delayed failures, tail risk, and ranking instability under plausible future perturbations. We present RiSE-Drive, a framework for risk-sensitive long-horizon candidate evaluation in end-to-end autonomous driving. RiSE-Drive first performs candidate-conditioned latent future rollout, then estimates long-horizon outcome distributions instead of single scalar scores, and finally ranks candidates using a tail-risk-aware and perturbation-robust decision criterion. This reformulates candidate scoring from deterministic oracle-style evaluation into distributional outcome assessment with explicit risk control. As a result, the evaluator is encouraged to prefer candidates that are not only strong under nominal conditions, but also reliable under long-horizon rollout and safety-critical deviations. Experiments on the NAVSIM-v1 and NAVSIM-v2 benchmarks, as well as the closed-loop HUGSIM benchmark, show that RiSE-Drive achieves state-of-the-art performance and significantly improves the robustness of candidate selection.