The next six weeks of scheduled layoffs now total 35,305 workers, and one week stands out from the rest. The week of November 24 carries 9,123 workers with effective dates in that week — more than a quarter of the entire six-week total, and the heaviest single week in the current outlook.

These figures come from Layoff Atlas's current WARN notice data: 670 notices covering 63,560 reported workers in the 90-day notice window, with 33 worker counts unavailable. As always, these are reported plans, not confirmed job losses. A WARN filing is an employer's advance notice of a planned mass layoff or closure, and plans can change before the effective date.

The new peak

The week of November 24 now leads the outlook by a clear margin. It sits 1,380 workers ahead of the current week, the week of October 27, which carries 7,743 workers — the second-heaviest week in the outlook.

The week of November 24 also contains Thanksgiving Day, which falls on Thursday, November 26. That timing matters for workers: effective dates landing in a holiday week can complicate final paychecks, benefits questions, and access to state rapid-response help, since offices may run on holiday hours. Anyone with an effective date that week should confirm the details with their employer and their state's dislocated worker unit before the holiday, not after.

The six-week picture

Here is the full outlook, by effective week, as of the latest data:

  • Week of October 27: 7,743 workers
  • Week of November 3: 2,827 workers
  • Week of November 10: 6,838 workers
  • Week of November 17: 6,556 workers
  • Week of November 24: 9,123 workers
  • Week of December 1: 2,218 workers

The average across the six weeks is about 5,884 workers per week. The November 24 week runs roughly 55 percent above that average, while the December 1 week runs about 62 percent below it.

A heavy stretch with a sharp drop-off

The shape of the outlook is uneven. It opens heavy, dips sharply in the week of November 3, climbs back through the middle of November, peaks in the week of November 24, and then falls off a cliff in the week of December 1.

That drop-off deserves a careful reading. Later weeks in any WARN outlook tend to look lighter partly because fewer notices have been filed yet for dates further out. Employers generally file 60 days ahead, so the December 1 week still has room to grow as new notices arrive. The November 24 peak, by contrast, is close enough that most of its notices are already in. Treat the peak as solid and the tail as provisional.

The same caution applies in reverse to the week of November 3, the second-lightest week at 2,827 workers. It is close enough in time that its total is unlikely to move much. The quiet week in early November is real, not just missing data.

Where the workers are

The national picture is heavily concentrated in a few states. In the 90-day notice window, the top states by reported workers are:

  • Washington: 16,960 workers
  • California: 13,557 workers
  • Illinois: 4,626 workers
  • Texas: 3,652 workers
  • Georgia: 2,492 workers

Washington and California alone account for 30,517 workers — about 48 percent of the national total of 63,560. That concentration is a reminder that national layoff headlines are often driven by a small number of states, and that a quiet national week can still be a heavy week somewhere specific.

How to read these numbers

Three things are worth keeping in mind when following week-by-week layoff figures.

First, the effective date is when the layoff takes effect, not when it was announced. A worker whose notice arrived in September can still have an effective date in late November. Sorting by effective date, as this outlook does, shows when the job losses land rather than when they made the news.

Second, WARN data is not a census of layoffs. Federal WARN only covers employers with 100 or more full-time employees, and only layoffs above set thresholds trigger a filing. Smaller layoffs, and layoffs in states with weaker reporting, never appear. Missing coverage is not the same as zero layoffs.

Third, worker counts are sometimes unavailable. In the current window, 33 notices carry no worker count, so the totals here understate the full picture slightly. The 9,123 figure for the week of November 24 counts only workers whose numbers were reported.

What to watch next

Two things will move this outlook in the coming days. New notices filed this week will mostly land in late December, beyond the six weeks covered here, so the December 1 week is the one most likely to grow. And any change to the November 24 total from here would be unusual, since that week is now less than a month away and its filings are largely in.

For workers, the practical takeaway is timing. If your effective date falls in the week of November 24, the holiday calendar makes early preparation especially worthwhile: confirm your last day, your final pay date, and how to file for unemployment before Thanksgiving week begins.

Data source: Layoff Atlas