arXiv:2606.04031v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Leader-follower gradient iterations, including bilevel and two-time-scale methods, can exhibit large finite-time excursions despite asymptotic stability. For cascaded iterations with block matrix J = [[A,0],[C,D]], symmetric diagonal blocks of norm at most gamma < 1, and coupling norm at most c, we prove an exact, dimension-free minimax formula: at every horizon t, the worst-case amplification equals the spectral norm of [[gamma^t,0],[c t gamma^(t-1),gamma^t]], attained by an aligned two-dimensional quadratic. Consequently, the worst transient is on the order of 1 + c/(1-gamma), and eigenvalues alone cannot predict finite-time gain. Under martingale noise, the aligned system has stationary follower variance sigma^2 c^2 (1+gamma^2)/(1-gamma^2)^3, establishing cubic inverse-gap scaling. For quadratic followers, the coupling is linked to follower sensitivity R by C = (I-D)R. When the leader is isotropic and the follower map is positive semidefinite, amplification is at most 1 plus the operator norm of R, independently of the spectral gaps. A look-ahead Newton update eliminates follower memory and is minimax-optimal among linear updates that track the leader exactly. Experiments validate the bounds and show that accelerated or inexact follower solvers can exceed the sensitivity bound when their effective maps have negative eigenvalues. Code and experiment scripts: https://github.com/Axym-Labs/transient-amplification