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When AI Advisors Agree: Distinguishing Forecast Risk from Forecast Reliability
arXiv cs.MA0 views
arXiv:2610.13431v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: If seven AI advisors give similar forecasts, should we trust them more? Agreement can indicate useful shared evidence, but it can also reflect an asset that was easier to forecast in the first place. We examine this distinction using 928 completed first-quarter forecasts for 232 assets across four production batches of iPulse AI. Ten historical Gemini configurations are grouped into seven investment frameworks; their archived forecasts are compared with later market outcomes, without generating new reports. Mean absolute return error rises from 10.31 percentage points in the lowest-disagreement quartile to 21.05 in the highest. Yet a forecast of no price change shows almost the same increase, from 9.89 to 21.15. The relationship between disagreement and additional forecast error is not resolved after accounting for visible asset risk. Retaining the quarter of forecasts with lowest historical volatility produces lower error than retaining those with least disagreement: 7.97 versus 10.31 percentage points. Agreement about direction behaves differently. When at least six of seven frameworks share a direction, directional accuracy is higher, but return-magnitude error is also larger. These results distinguish three questions often collapsed into one confidence score: how risky the asset is, whether advisors agree on its direction, and how precisely they forecast its return. For this historical council, agreement is informative in specific ways; it is not a general certificate of forecast reliability.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13431PreviousThe Limits of Manipulation within Personalized Incentive PoliciesNextCollective Autonomous Vehicle Routing Needs Social Awareness for Coexistence with Human Drivers
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